American Hooligans

In which DoctorD reveals the most important of his fantasy draft rankings: #25-50

First, just a bit about me. Last year was my first year of fantasy baseball and it also happened to be the first time I read Moneyball. I didn’t know a lot about baseball, but I did know my autodrafted class wasn’t getting me anywhere (since I had a lot of guys that only got hot in the last month of the season or so like David Wright). So while others worried about potential and intangibles, I went all Billy Beane and started picking up guys based only on their numbers and only from the Free Agent pool. I had something ridiculous like 63 roster moves, but I was quite pleased with my final roster.

Fielders

Garret Anderson

Carlos Beltran

Eric Byrnes

Mark Ellis

Adrian Gonzalez

Curtis Granderson

Khalil Greene

J.J. Hardy

Todd Helton

Kelly Johnson

Jeff Keppinger

Mike Lowell

Russell Martin

Brandon Phillips

J.R. Towles

Pitchers

Chad Billingsley

Joe Blanton

Fausto Carmona

Kelvim Escobar

Yovani Gallardo

Takashi Saito

Ben Sheets

Chris Young

…considering Beltran was the only one I drafted, the rest were Moneyballed off the free agent wire (with the exception of Carmona, who I got in a trade for Hill Aaron Hill, and you can only imagine how hilarious that was).

I promptly came in 5^th, but then, we all came very close to losing to the guy who logged in once, I don’t feel bad at all.

So, what is The Atkins 25?

The Atkins 25 is a concept from fantasy baseball rankings when you’re plotting your order for draft day. The first 25 are easy, since you’re pretty much guaranteed production unless you have horrible luck (thanks, Chris Carpenter, you fuck), but the next 25 are when the agony begins. You’re still among the good players and superstars, but these are when the downsides start showing up. Round 1 is pretty much a wash, it’s in the next rounds where your draft starts to matter. My #25 was Garret Atkins, thus on that entirely arbitrary basis, I called the line demarcating “pleasure” and “pain” The Atkins Line. Hilariously, due to injuries among the Top 25, Atkins has moved up well past the line that bears his name.

Point being, we don’t need to tell you “Draft A-Rod first.” When I flip open a fantasy mag and see their ace specialist advice is “Draft A-Rod first,” I roll my eyes and say “Well, no shit,” which makes people wonder precisely what I’m doing in the bathroom with rustling paper and swearing to myself. Right around Player #25, though, you hit the point where tough decisions have to be made. When people stop being polite (Draft A-Rod lol) and start getting real (oh, god, Bengie Molina is the only catcher left on the board).

Since we’re playing a Moneyball league, our scoring rules are a little different. This especially affects pitchers, since you no longer get screwed when a decent guy like Scott Kazmir gets dinged for five runs and the loss because the Devil Rays replaced all their fielders with Folger’s Crystals to see if he’d notice. On the other hand, you can’t rely on a team with a lights-out pitcher to carry a bunch of scrubs to success.

Anyway, here’s my pick for those below The Atkins Line, the Next 25.

25. Jorge Posada

Yes, I have a catcher in my Top 25. Am I a madman? Am I a charlatan? Yes. But I’m also a guy who noticed that finding a good catcher is really, really hard. Last year, I managed to snag Russell Martin off the Free Agent wires and, hey, he had a pretty good year. However, I also noticed it was damn near impossible to pick up a reliable backup. You can wait until the late rounds and pick up some scrub, basically conceding an offensive position, or you can snag an A-lister in the third or fourth rounds and be set for life. Catcher is a physical position, it’s easy to get hurt, and you’re going to be screwed if your guy goes out early. Thus, Posada. OPS of .426 last year, GIDP only 18 times, and you nail down a good, solid catcher at one of the most physical positions in the game. He’s freshly resigned, so no contract shit, he plays for a good team that takes care of their players, and even though he’s old, he handle he bidniss.

26. Carlos Lee

His career OBP is .342, his SLG is just a hint under .500, and, yet, he’s liable to be overlooked in your draft because his career batting average is only .288 and 32 homeruns is not the sort of top-flight scoring your usual drafyers are looking for this earlier. However, straight Moneyballers know how we do. His 63 Ks will keep you from getting hurt, and 76 XBH look mighty fine. He has a tendency to ground into double plays, but if he’s available in the high-to-middle rounds, you’d be a fool not to stuff him into your outfield.

27. Carlos Guillén

Yeah, I know, all the options at 1B and I’m recommending this guy. But I can’t ignore a 2007 SLG of .502, OBP of .357, and 21HRs. If your league is like ours, he also qualifies at SS, and my personal strategy places a premium on players that can play multiple positions, for injuries, off weeks, and everything else that can go wrong across the season. Ask the New York Mets about that.

28. Derek Jeter

This is the year everybody hates Jeter. Or maybe they already did and I’m just picking up on it. I’ve heard nothing but bitching about Jeter for reasons I don’t quite understand. Fact remains, fielding doesn’t matter in our league, a .388OBP and 55XBH is hot as hell from last year, and if you pass the chance to pick up Jeter at Shortstop, you’re going to spend the rest of your season muttering to yourself when he gets sick of the shit and goes wild.

29. Tim Lincecum

Lincecum strikes me as one of those picks that everyone looks at you funny for. This high in the rounds, you should be drafting Cy Young winners and such, right? Let’s consider something, though. With the Giants(!), Lincecum put up a 4 ERA, a winning record, a WHIP of 1.28, only gave up 12 home runs, and snagged 150Ks…as a rookie in his first season. What I’m saying to you is that you can snag a young pitcher with a 100MPH fastball that now has a season’s worth of seasoning on him. Now stay out of my draft, alright?

30. Derrek Lee

This is a classic Moneyball pick. Average fantasy draft position of 55.8. 1B at a stacked position. Whaaaaat? But let me tell you about a guy with a career SLG of .502. His name is Derrek Lee and he plays for the Cubs, and they’re considering batting him at cleanup. His OBP last year was .400 and he clocked 66XBH. This is a straight Moneyball player, yo.

31. Gary Sheffield

Downside, he was born around the time of Woodstock. Upside, lifetime OBP brushing right up against .400, he hits in the DH slot, meaning he sits around waiting to hit the hell out of things, and he clocked up 46XBH with only 71 Ks. It’s important to remember that we care about all numbers, since (in our league), Ks actually subtract from your points, meaning it’s far better to have a consistent guy than it is to have someone who hits a lot, but strikes out a lot, too.

32. Víctor Martínez

Go back and read Posada’s entry, my “theory on drafting catchers early,” which may possibly be insane. The same logic applies here and Martinez is young, his SLG for last season was over .500 with an OBP of .374, only 71Ks and best of all, in most leagues, he can start at Catcher and at 1B.

33. David Ortiz

~I like it when ya call me Big Papi~

Throw ya hands in the air if youse a true player. Ortiz is a walking time bomb, a player that is too good for this world, like Superman if he was black and had a lifetime OBP of .384. In 2007, he hit 35 HRs, sported an OBP of .445 and an SLG of 621 and this was considered a bad year!

However, Ortiz is walking on knees that may break down into “Dan Marino in his last years” level of sad, which is why he’s fallen this low in my drafting list. If he is still available, you’re a damn fool not to take him, but you should also have drafted someone who can take his place by this point, so you can reap the sweet sweet value while not being too screwed if he’s shuffling up to the plate in Stone Cold Steve Austin knee braces during the pennant run.

34. Russell Martin

By now, you’ve seen my “Theory on drafting catchers early,” and I’m not saying you should take all three of them, idiot, pick one and move on. Martin was an anchor of my fantasy team last year, solid as a rock, and I saw the muhfuh do a backflip over the concrete wall behind the plate trying to catch a fly ball and not only did he survive, he made the damn catch. The only reason he’s behind Martinez and Posada is I hear Joe Torre might actually try to cut back on his playing time, which is when I thank the good lord for Joe Girardi.

35. Eric Byrnes

“Who the fuck is Eric Byrnes?” J-Bla yelped when I snagged the guy off the waiver wire last year. A .353 OBP isn’t so bad, but lemme tell yall about the points I got from 59XBH and 43 NSB. He strikes out a fair amount (98Ks in 2007), but Byrnes was one of those solid, reliable players that would suddenly go insane and put up an insane number of points. Plug him in at OF and then pat yourself on the back.

36. Carlos Peña

I love 1B. Well, that’s not quite right. I love dudes who rack up lots of points, so let me tell you about a guy with a .627 SLG in 2007 and a .411 OBP. His name is Carlos Pena and he racks up fantasy points. Downside: Ks. 142, and if he gets on a bad streak, he can kill you. Pena requires commitment to the long-term, so it’s not for week-to-week hustlers like myself, but there’s a huge upside if you’re willing to deal with the 3K days for the big and sexy high point specials.

37. José Valverde

I love me some relief pitchers. Why? We play in an innings-restricted league, and on a pound-for-pound (or inning-for-inning) basis, they are the most effective weapon in your arsenal. So let’s talk about Valverde. He’s 28, which means he’s just starting to hit his prime. He pitched 64.1 innings last year and racked up 78Ks in that time, which means, yes, he’s averaging 1 per inning. He only gave up 7HRs in that time and his WHIP is a beautiful 1.12. This is the guy that costs you only 1 inning and gives you Starting Pitcher level points about once every two weeks, seriously.

38. Chone Figgins

Dude’s name is pronounced “Shawn,” or so they tell me. This may seem like a bit of a reach, but let’s think about it for a minute. His numbers are good for our purposes. In 2007, he sported a .393 OBP, 33XBH, and 29NSB. Most importantly, in our league, he qualifies for 2B, 3B, and OF, meaning you can nail down 3 positions with a good-enough-to-start guy, letting you take a flyer on the high-class, injury-prone rock stars in those spots, while still having an ace in the hole. And that ace’s name is Chone.

39. Nick Markakis

Two things: He’s got a lifetime OPS of .826 and he is pissed about his contract. That usually means they tank it completely, or they get really, really mad and run up big, fat, gaudy numbers so they get a payday from hell on the back end. I’m leaning towards the second here, and OF is so deep you can afford to take a hot young player on a rampage and cut him if he goes all sulky sulk.

40. Édgar Rentería

“Renteria, cha cha cha. Renteria, cha cha cha.”

This may only mean something to you if you wasted your life watching MTV in your early teens like I did, but you are pretty much my audience. Renteria’s OBP is a decent .390, but the reason he’s worth picking up is his XBH (43 in 2007) and his Ks (only 77 in 2007). Here’s a guy that holds down your shortstop position, or serves as an able backup that you can platoon if your main guy gets hurt.

41. Chipper Jones

Chipper has fallen this low because Baseball Cancer has laid him low once and seems to be rearing its ugly head again in 2008. By this point, though, you can take the guy gambling with minor injuries and hope for the best. Chipper is worth the flyer, but don’t come crying to me when Baseball Cancer strikes again. You have been warned.

42. Fausto Carmona

Kelvim Escobar was my pick here until I caught up on the news, which is that Escobar’s shoulder has been hurting him pretty much since September. Aha, says I. To the deeps with thee!

Carmona tanked it in the playoffs, but let’s face facts, he’s 24 with 2 years of experience and a lifetime WHIP of 1.31, and who cares about the playoffs when he runs up the numbers in the regular season. Everyone’s taking him late, so it wouldn’t hurt to let him slip a round or two, but don’t let him fall too far.

43. Shane Victorino

This is another Moneyball special. He’s not a big hitter and he tends to fall to the late-late rounds, but let’s take a look here. 62Ks and 10GIDP means he won’t hurt you when he has a bad run. His .347 OBP is respectable, and 38XBH and 33NSB means he’ll get you big numbers in the “other” category, and while he wound up on the DL last year, he’s looked hot as hell in Spring Training this year, so you could grab him on a bargain pick and look real smug when he starts producing.

44. Andruw Jones

He’s another of the “You may want to let them sit for a bit” crew, which is why they’re this far down my list. Yeah, he had a miserable year in 2007, and he looks like he could win a hot dog eating contest, but players let go like Andruw usually have something to prove, he’s been doing well in ST, and Joe Torre knows all about coddling vets in need of coddling. I’d look for big numbers here if I wanted a bench guy to take a chance on.

45. Jim Thome

Jim Thome is old. But he still managed a .563 SLG and a .410 OBP last year. So who cares? He can’t have that much left in the tank, but anyone who’s been a broke ass college student can tell you that you can ride pretty hard on fumes. Definitely worth picking up for the Utility slot points, since even if he is old, pitchers are still terrified of a guy getting close to 40 and still putting up 35 HRs.

46. Erik Bedard

When you think “Elite picher,” “Erik Bedard” doesn’t come racing to mind, which is, perhaps, a pity. Let’s go to the numbers. His WHIP last year was 1.09 and he went 13-5 for the Mariners, a team so desperate for pitching that they started Jeff Weaver. In pure Moneyball terms, he clocked up 221Ks while only giving up 19HRs, which are astounding numbers, especially for a “guy you never think of” type like Bedard.

47. Chad Billingsley

I picked up Billingsley last year when he first started getting really hot. It was like asking out the nerd chick in freshman year, then when you’re a senior, she develops into the hot chick with double-Ds that doesn’t know she’s amazingly gorgeous. What I’m saying is I’m sleeping with Chad Billingsley because he doesn’t know he could do better, and you should be, too.

48. Robinson Cano

Cano has been playing like a man on fire, at least in the Spring Training games I’ve seen. This is a guy who had seasons averaging .342 and .306 and he wants better. He has an OPS of .835 and he wants to do better. And he’s only 25. Admitted Yankees bias aside, 2B is a thin position and Cano is only going to get better.

49. Mike Lowell

Yeah, yeah, he’s old. I saw him give a dude a concussion with the power of his tree-like thighs in a game last year. That’s a guy I want holding down 3B. If Lowell being old bothers you, take a look at Youks, since they’re pretty much the same person and Youks can go in at 1^st or 3^rd, though Lowell is the better pick statistically speaking. Seriously, he’s in his mid-30s and his thighs are so meaty, he gave a dude a concussion.

50. Dontrelle Willis

Yes, I, too, know the heartbreak of Dontrelle. He was on my team last year. But keep in mind, now he is playing on the stacked Tigers, and while those team stats won’t matter much in a Moneyball sort of league like ours, he won’t get demoralized and start hating life because he plays for the goddamn Marlins. I’m picking him for a big, nasty comeback and he will serve able in either bench rotation or fill-in duty. Not quite good enough for my main rotation, but good enough to stash on the bench in case he recovers.